Solving the Monty Hall Paradox
Image Source: letsmakeadeal.com Do you hedge your bets when playing at Royal Vegas Canada, or do you go all in? Everybody’s got their own betting style when they’re playing at the casino. Whether you’re a big-risk taker or are rather more cautious in the way you play, you should be aware of a gaming phenomenon called the “Monty Hall Paradox”. Don’t know what we’re talking about? Pay attention below. It may change the way you play at the casino…
What is a paradox?
Image Source: kingofwallpapers.com A paradox is “an apparently true statement or group of statements that leads to a contradiction or a situation which defies intuition.”
What is the Monty Hall Paradox?
It’s a brain teaser that is presented in the form of a probability puzzle and is loosely based on the American television game show Let's Make a Deal. It’s called the “Monty Hall Paradox” because it’s named after the show’s host, Monty Hall. Steve Selvin originally posed this paradox in a letter to the American Statistician in 1975. It gained traction in popular culture after a question from a reader's letter was quoted in 1990 in Marilyn vos Savant's "Ask Marilyn" column in "Parade" magazine: “Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?” Image Source: playbuzz.com
How does this paradox affect your decision-making?
Image Source: all-that-is-interesting.com What “Monty” has done is made you doubt your initial decision. Once this seed of doubt has been planted in your mind you will be indecisive and less confident in making your decision.
How do you overcome this problem?
The theory goes that you actually stand twice as good a chance of winning if you switch your original choice. This was Vos Savant's response to the question posed in Parade, as she argued that contestants who switch have a 2/3 chance of winning the car, while those who remain with to their initial choice only have a 1/3 chance of winning. Using that logic, your chances of winning are twice as good if you switch your initial choice.
How did they come to this conclusion?
Image Source: skylinetradeshowtips.com There are numerous types of paradoxes, some of which make perfect sense and some of which seem impossible. In this instance, this particular paradox is called a veridical paradox – this is the production of a result to a puzzle (problem) that that appears absurd on the surface, but is nonetheless proven to be true. So do you think you’ll use this paradox the next time you’re playing at our casino? Try this strategy out for yourself and see if your luck turns!